Georgia Economist Dr Nikki Finlay Explains What 3.7 Percent Inflation, Slower Hiring and a Fed Pause Mean for Households

Author of The Economy Always Gets Better offers a plain-English guide to the economic reports arriving before the holidays

OXFORD, GA, UNITED STATES, November 3, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- As households head into the holiday shopping season, new economic reports show higher inflation, slower hiring and an interest rate pause. Nikki M. Finlay, PhD, an award-winning economist, longtime college professor and author of The Economy Always Gets Better: Navigating Uncertain Times with Confidence, is offering a plain-English guide to which of those numbers matter most for household budgets.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that consumer prices rose 3.7 percent over the 12 months ending in September, up from 3.4 percent in August. Energy prices rose 20.4 percent over the year, while prices excluding food and energy rose 2.6 percent. In the South region, which includes Georgia, prices rose 3.4 percent. The BLS also reported that employers added 29,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent. Average hourly earnings grew 3.0 percent over 12 months, trailing the rise in prices.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point in September, to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent, and held it steady at its Oct. 28 meeting. The National Retail Federation forecasts that holiday sales will grow 4.2 percent to $1.013 trillion, a figure that is not adjusted for inflation.

“When prices rise faster than paychecks, households feel it right away, even when the overall economy looks steady,” said Dr Finlay. “The headlines treat each report as a separate story. They are really one story about prices, pay, jobs and interest rates, and seeing how they connect helps people make calmer decisions.”

Dr Finlay suggests four things to watch as the next reports arrive. First, compare headline inflation with inflation excluding food and energy, because energy prices can swing quickly while rents and grocery prices tend to stay high once they rise. Second, compare pay growth with price growth, since a raise smaller than inflation reduces purchasing power. Third, check which unemployment measure is being quoted, because the official rate counts only people who are out of work and actively looking. Fourth, follow interest rates, which set the cost of mortgages, car loans and credit cards. Using a shortcut known as the Rule of 72, a credit card balance at 26 percent interest, a rate cited in her book, roughly doubles in under three years.

“I tell everyone who asks that the economy will get better, and the data and history show why,” Dr Finlay said. “Nobody needs an economics degree to follow it. The goal is to know which numbers matter, so one bad headline does not push anyone into a bad decision.”

The BLS is scheduled to publish October employment data on Nov. 6 and October consumer prices on Nov. 10. The Federal Reserve’s next rate decision is Dec. 9.

Dr Finlay lives in Oxford, Georgia. She holds a doctorate in economics from Georgia State University and taught economics for more than two decades at Georgia State, Clayton State University and Gwinnett Technical College, earning teaching awards. Her book draws on Georgia experience, including talks she gave to business owners in Morrow during the Great Recession, when unemployment in Spalding County averaged 14.8 percent in 2009, and rent increases of 23 percent in the Atlanta area from 2021 to 2023.

The Economy Always Gets Better, published by Amplify Publishing on Aug. 18, 2026, explains GDP, inflation, unemployment, trade and Federal Reserve policy through personal stories and everyday examples. Andrew Leigh, author of How Economics Explains the World, called it “a thoughtful and accessible book that grounds economics in lived experience.” The book is available on Amazon.

Dr Finlay also writes Economics for the Rest of Us on Substack, where she answers reader questions about prices, jobs, interest rates and trade.

Fleur Hull
Stacks Publishing
hello@stackspublishing.com
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